Most people have heard that 3D printing will save American manufacturing. Manufacturers say that President Obama also responded. So when the 3D printers come together at the SXSW conference, everyone need not be surprised. The audience queued to receive Mexican corn bean curd, watching a pile of plastic parts slowly emerge from the machine around them. But watching the demo (something boring after 30 seconds) does not make the idea of ​​"economized manufacturing" as easy as drawing a line. A 3D printer is like adding a prop to a business with a sign on it. It may read: "This is our 3D printer. This is the future!" The place where the printer is placed in the evening is likely to be used as DJ station became part of the music performance. Manufacturers and growing investors want to ask, when will this hype end? When will the down-to-earth work begin? In the next 5 to 10 years, where will the 3D printing technology go? Or let us speak with numbers. Wohlers Associates, a consulting and market research firm that has been immersed in the 3D printing market for nearly 20 years, estimates that the annual growth rate of 3D printing in 2011 is about 29%, and has grown at a similar rate in the following years. And another important data indicator in the industry, Makerbot, said that in the past few years, 15,000 3D printers have been sold, accounting for 25% of the 3D desktop market. According to this ratio, the entire market will have about 60,000 printers. At $2,000 per machine, the entire market was worth $120 million. With more expensive industrial 3D printing systems, Wallers predicts that worldwide sales of 3D products (systems and raw materials) and services will reach US$3.7 billion by 2015; by 2019 it will increase to 6.5 billion. Dollars. Terry Worles, the founder of the consulting firm, also said that the forecast did not include 3D printing components that Boeing and GM may use in aerospace and orthopedic manufacturing. Therefore, it is optimistic to estimate that the entire market value in 2019 may reach 13 billion US dollars. This figure is not small, but it is not enough to trigger the current manufacturing revolution. Think about it, the annual manufacturing industry contributes 16% of the global GDP. In 2011, for example, manufacturing contributed 11 trillion yuan out of a total of $69 trillion, and the 11 trillion yuan also included expenses incurred by advertising and logistics services. So think about it, even after another 6 years, 3D printing is still a drop in the bucket for the entire market. However, this still can't stop investors from rushing in and save money to companies like 3D Systems (DDD) and Stratasys (SSYS). Stratasys' market capitalization soared 479% over the past year. Another company, ExOne (XONE), went public in February and performed well in the turbulent stock market. In the past two months, the stock price has increased by 15%. 3D Systems and Stratasys, which have already faded away, have fallen by 18% and 14% this year. Will these companies be the next Microsoft, Google (microblogging), or Facebook to lead the next long-term change? Or is it a short-term investment boom? Just as in the computer and Internet era, unless technological change can replace the existing methods and companies, it is difficult to tell who is the ultimate winner. An entrepreneur in the 3D printing industry stated that he would not sell traditional manufacturing stocks. He explained that "traditional manufacturing has a long time to be able to mass-produce it cheaply to meet the needs of the mass market." “3D printing offers a unique opportunity to tell the public how special we are. But think about every time you have dinner you have to print cutlery and plates, and I don’t want to toss. If you can buy cheaper things at IKEA, It's the same for others." This also means that the production of kitchen utensils that they need in their own factories will not be reliable at any time. Take a look at your own house and think about the sights of those things that have been eliminated. You may need 12 different types of glass, 30 types of steel, 1000 types of plastic, and various colors you want, as well as nuts and bolts. And you have to find a dedicated room to assemble. Even if you can print out the electronic deposition ink and Aurora-driven metal sintering required for iPhones, you will end up with a poor-looking iphone, not to mention Gorilla Glass, because Corning will not be able to sell it. Give you. Levos pointed out that more and more 3D printed items enter our lives, but they should be made by professionals with professional tools and knowledge, rather than ordinary people. Think so, you can design and produce your own furniture, but you may not do it. Rather than cause a fire in a home factory, you prefer to tap the "Buy" button on Amazon or other websites, and then the 3D printer elsewhere starts to work. "Most people don't care about how things are made. They pay more attention to the value and use of products," said Wollers. “3D printing is just another way of production. The only difference may be that the product is more plentiful, because the price threshold for 3D printing manufacturing is lower than that of traditional manufacturing. 3D printing is not used unless someone orders to buy or not to produce. There is no risk in the industry." Part of the chaos (and hype) surrounding 3D printing has caused our eagerness to be impractical. Let us think that this is just another gadget in the tech world. If it is just a device, then according to Moore's Law, there will be a rapid development in the future. However, Moore's Law does not apply to 3D printing, except possibly the internal chip of the printer. 3D printing is a combination of materials science, precision machinery, electronic controllers and software. The development of computers verified Moore's Law. In the computer world, the single aspect can be greatly improved, but 3D printing is a polyhedron, including raw material filling, machine speed, accuracy and resolution. And different types of applications - orthopedics or jewelry - make all aspects of 3D printing even more important. "I think the development curve of 3D printing is similar to the improvement of similar screen technology," said Mark Hatch, CEO of TechShop. "In the past 20 years, it has gradually evolved and will continue to evolve." Hatch pointed out that the explosive development in the field of home 3D printing is closely related to two major factors. One is a huge leap in technology, and the other is the failure of two key patents held by Stratasys in 2011. One of the patents involved is called fused deposition molding, in which the plastic tape is melted and then modeled. This process was controlled by a software script, and Stratasys co-founder Scott Kleop received the patent in 1989. Open source toolkits for 3D printers and most home printers use the FDM method. Hatch said: "In fact, it needs to be suppressed. These patents have always hampered the development of 3D printing. There has been no such increase in the field of materials science." Duncan Stewart, head of Deloitte's Canadian technology, media, and communications research, likened the 3D printing industry to steam engines or biotechnology. “Looking at biotechnology, it has been 40 years old and has received some great attention, but it is still a way to become an industry, but it has not become a kind of equipment.†Stewart predicts that the most useful application for 3D printing is for appliance repair workers. Make spare parts. "Without having to carry hundreds of parts, maintenance workers just put a 3D printer in the trunk and pay a $2 license fee to fix the washer." TechShop's Hatch has a more ambitious vision for the future and value of 3D printing. "The killer of 3D printing in industrial applications is the ability to quickly produce prototypes. Probably due to the lack of post-processing these prototypes are not powerful, but as a prototype OK. The rapid prototype outweighed the detailed research and slides." (As a former soldier, Hatch also had the idea of ​​printing weapons. "Of course it can be done, but it's expensive and slow. The finished product is very bad. It's still compared to the standard industrial tools that are available on eBay." More convenient. Now printing weapons is a waste of time, only an idiot will be a 3D printing pistol or knife ") For home users, what will be different in the next decade? "3D printing will enable all people aged 8 to 80 to enjoy education and games." Hatch said: "This is an invaluable asset." Hatch’s ideal is wonderful. At the practical and industrial level, the value of 3D printing is that in the near future and in the foreseeable future, we can quickly transform our ideas into real objects that can be held in our hands, possibly toothbrushes, door handles and toys. The highest goal of 3D printing is experimental, which is also its value. Finished products made by consumers and professionals may be any form, any product. This is where the future of 3D printing lies. In the future, 3D printing stocks will soar, but the most important one is to save the U.S. manufacturing industry. 36 Printing (Editor)