Paper industry: the furniture new policy is gradually optimistic about the rating

Investment points:

Market performance this week: This week's paper light industry sector performed weaker than the broader market. Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (-0.03%), light industrial manufacturing (-1.51%); key company performance: Xinghui model (-0.79%), Sun Paper (-1.63%), Sofia (0.97%), Yongxin shares ( -1.01%), Meike shares (1.26%), Dongfeng shares (-0.43%).

This week's market summary: raw materials market: international pulp prices are relatively stable this week, waste paper prices fell slightly, cotton prices fell slightly, plastic products prices fell. Paper product market: Due to the dull demand of downstream demand, the prices of various types of paper products tracked mainly continued to be low this week, and there was no change. Furniture market: Furniture export data recovered in March, with total exports amounting to 1918.34 million US dollars, up 20.62% year-on-year. Toy market: The total export value of toys in January-March was 6985.79 million US dollars, up 5.2% year-on-year.

Important news and data review this week:

Furniture market: On July 1, Beijing is expected to officially release the furniture trade-in policy. Recently, the Ministry of Commerce has made a high-profile statement. The Ministry of Commerce actively supports local pilots of furniture trade-in. If the pilot effect is obvious, it can be promoted nationwide. Paper market: In April, the national paper and board output was 10.293 million tons, an increase of 8.2% over the same period of last year; the cumulative output from January to April was 38.056 million tons, an increase of 9.6% over the same period last year. Toy market: Toy exports exceeded $1.5 billion in April, up 19% year-on-year. Among them, traditional toys exported more than 750 million US dollars, accounting for nearly 50% of total toy exports, and electronic game consoles ranked second with nearly 520 million US dollars in exports.

Investment strategy and recommendations:

This week we recommend re-starting the investment logic of falling costs and paying attention to the progress of the trade-in policy. Companies with more viscous pricing, such as Yongxin, will gradually benefit from the decline in crude oil prices. In addition, the furniture trade-in was opened in July in Beijing, and it is expected to be piloted nationwide. According to our previous report, “Furniture trade-in, Dongfeng, domestic channel-based enterprises benefit”, we believe that Da Ya Technology (unrated) and Del Home (unrated) companies are expected to receive The old-for-new policy benefits.

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