Domestic cultural paper and packaging paper market prices are still down the whole line

1. In the past two weeks, the domestic cultural paper and packaging paper market prices continued to decline across the board. Among them, the average price per ton of coated paper on August 13 was 5,369 yuan, a decrease of 0.22% from last week; the average price per ton of double-adhesive paper was 5,979 yuan, a decrease of 0.08% from last week. The average price per ton of gray-white board paper was 4,790 yuan, a decrease of 0.66% from last week; the average price per ton of white cardboard was 7,785 yuan, a decrease of 0.29% from last week. At the same time, the average price of each paper product fell simultaneously, which was consistent with the weakness of the average market price. In terms of raw material pulp paper, the domestic ex-factory price of pulp and paper and the price of foreign-made pulp and paper have not changed significantly from last week, which is relatively stable. However, the price of foreign pulp and paper has dropped significantly, and the average price per ton has dropped by about US$20. -30 dollars, a decline of about 3% -4%. In terms of waste paper, the average price of waste paper in the domestic market is still running at a low level and has fallen sharply from last week. The average price this week fell by 9.70%, 11.00%, 9.59% and 8.42 respectively compared with last week in Guangzhou, Tianjin, Shanghai and Qingdao. %; foreign paper waste quotation is still weak. As of August 13, the average US waste price fell by 3.57% from last week, and the average price of daily waste and European waste was unchanged from last week.

2. This week, the overall performance of the paper industry was stronger than the market. From the 5 trading days from August 6 to August 10, 2012, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.95%. The arithmetic average income of 84 light stocks of our light industry papermaking was 4.47%, exceeding the index performance. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the list of listed companies we focus on.

3. The recent weakening trend of paper raw materials and downstream paper products has not seen a significant change, and the fundamentals of the industry have not changed. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to our industry in-depth report, “The paper products continue to fall, and the paper products are more rigid.” The change in raw material prices is a true portrayal of changes in downstream demand. Through our research, the paper gross profit margin, net interest rate rise and fall and raw material prices rise and fall are basically consistent performance. Under the influence of raw material procurement and inventory cycle, the price change of production raw materials is transmitted to the operating cost and net profit of the enterprise within a period of one year. At the same time, the main constraint to the change in raw material prices is downstream demand. After the demand is weakened, the relevant enterprises on the production chain generally choose to reduce the cost to improve the competitiveness and ensure the production operation. Therefore, the signal that the downstream demand is weakened can be quickly transmitted to the raw material price. At present, the pulp and waste paper market continues to weaken. If the demand for downstream paper products continues to deteriorate, global wood fiber costs may continue to weaken in the second quarter, and weak pulp and waste paper prices will become the norm in the coming months. Conversely, the rebound in the price of pulp and waste paper will become a real signal that downstream demand will improve and paper companies will turn around. The simultaneous decline in raw material and downstream paper prices will benefit companies with more rigid product prices.

4. In terms of individual stocks, we are still more optimistic about food packaging, pharmaceutical packaging and daily chemical packaging companies that are close to the daily consumer market, such as Yongxin. For more information, please see our dynamic report, “Development Success, Helping the Company Transform Its Consumption Attributes to Showcase Investment Value”. At the same time, Guanhao Gaoxin continued to suspend its trading due to major issues. During the period, the State Council expanded the “battalion reform and increase” pilot to 10 provinces and cities. Next year, it will select the industry to implement the country, and once again benefit the Guanhao Gaoxin main invoice paper (carbonless copy paper) business.

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