[Xianghe Furniture City official website] The furniture industry, sorrowful and sorrowful, has the same fatal problem as the real estate industry: go fast, fall fast! The wise man encourages us, where to fall, where to stand up, and the same place can not fall twice! Any aspect of the first two is enough to cause the furniture industry to fall, not to mention the two problems, coupled with the serious excess of the furniture industry, if you have not realized the seriousness of the problem, it will not be far from death.
Looking back on the rapid development of China's furniture industry in the past two decades, it has benefited from the three major aspects of China's economic environment, the upstream real estate industry, and the rough and fertile soil of the furniture industry in the growth period. Leaving that ring, the furniture industry is unlikely to achieve past brilliant results.
In 2012, China's GDP growth rate was 7.6% in the first two quarters; in 2012, China's real estate business housing sales and sales area have been suffering in a negative growth zone; in 2012 domestic domestic sales fell 35%. All this is in stark contrast with the past decade, and at the same time it illustrates a problem: the two days of ice and fire, this is not the case.
GDP transition from high speed to medium speed
When the footsteps of history came to the end of 2012, when the Chinese economy entered the beginning of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the GDP formed a high inertia in China, and suddenly the pace of slowdown, the government was in the 12th Five-Year Plan The average annual growth target for GDP is 7%. This means a growth rate of more than 50% compared to the data of the last decade.
Why the government has to give up high growth is because of the cost and pain behind high growth.
Hou Yunchun, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council: The moderate slowdown in China's economic growth is in line with China's macroeconomic regulation and control, and is also in line with the laws of economic development. It is normal, healthy and necessary. A rational view of China's economic growth slowdown should not ignore the three factors. First, before the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the Chinese economy has developed rapidly for 10 consecutive years. At that time, in response to the overheated economy, China has initiated adjustments to the economic structure. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, in response to the crisis, the pace of economic restructuring in China has slowed down. Now that the economic growth rate has slowed down, it is necessary to fill in the structural adjustment.
CCTV commentator Niu Knife: GDP is broken, not the problem of economic slowdown, but the end of China's bubble economy in this decade. In other words, the Chinese bubble can’t play anymore.
Li Ling, a professor at the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, said in an interview that the slowdown in economic growth is not a bad thing, showing the economic restructuring that is under way in our country. No country in the world can maintain a growth rate of more than 8% forever, and of course our country cannot. Because the economy has its own rules of operation, it is very normal to rise and fall, and does not require much intervention.
Economist Dong Dengxin: The 30-year extensive, extended, and expanding economic growth has reached its utmost and cannot continue. The total GDP of 50 trillion yuan is a huge base. It is unlikely that it will continue to maintain growth of more than 8% or 10%. Therefore, after the GDP growth rate breaks eight, there is no such thing as a “bottoming out†problem, but where do we have to redefine the “moderate interval†of economic growth? I believe that a GDP growth rate of 6%-8%, or about 7%, will be a "moderate interval" for China's economic growth in the future. Only by determining a new moderation interval, can we calmly face and accept the reality of the decline in GDP growth.
The upstream real estate industry has become a necessity
In 2012, the sales of real estate goods increased from double-digit growth, and then fell into the negative growth zone. Together with the sales area of ​​commercial housing, it also fell into the negative growth zone. In addition, in 2011, the land acquisition area of ​​real estate development enterprises nationwide also fell from the positive interval to the negative interval.
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